Who will win March Madness 2023?

Grab your brackets and get ready for March Madness! The 2023 Division I NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament officially tips off on Tuesday, March 14, and we have everything you need to know about this year’s Big Dance, including the favorites to win it all and why recent history actually favors No. 11 seeds!

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Odds to win March Madness

Which team will win the 2023 NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament? Here are the latest odds according to Odds Shark entering the Round of 68.

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Favorite teams to win March Madness 2023

Houston Cougars

Odds: 

Only once since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams (yes, we know the tournament actually has 68 teams, but bear with us for a moment) has a mid-major program won March Madness. Will star guard Marcus Sasser and the Houston Cougars join the 1990 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels in the tiny club? Houston entered the tournament at 30-2 and ranked atop the final three AP Top 25 polls. And it’s not like they haven’t been here before; this year marks the 40th anniversary of the famed Phi Slama Jama team that made it all the way to the championship before falling to Jim Valvano’s NC State squad in one of the most legendary games of all time. The odds are extremely good that we’ll see Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler in the stands at some point during the tournament, especially if the Cougars make it to the Final Four in Houston. 

Alabama Crimson Tide

Odds: 

We’re buying high in Alabama’s chances of winning March Madness. Freshman sensation Brandon Miller is a potent scorer who averaged 19.5 points and 8.1 rebounds for the Crimson Tide this season. Alabama needs continued strong play from Miller and fellow freshman forward Noah Clowney (9.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game) if the Crimson Tide plan on winning their first national championship since 1930. However, any talk about Alabama must involve Miller, who allegedly brought a firearm to teammate Darius Miles that was used in a homicide earlier this year. Miller currently faces no charges and has continued playing for Alabama throughout the season.

Kansas

Odds: 

Let’s show some love to the reigning champions! Kansas took care of business throughout the regular season before a 20-point blowout loss to Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game. Even amid concerns about longtime head coach Bill Self’s health, we think the Jayhawks’ loaded roster—four players entered the tournament averaging double-digit points—still makes them a legitimate threat to cut the nets in April.

Purdue

Odds:

After opening the season as a relative longshot to win March Madness, Purdue now ranks among the favorites to cut the nets. Funny how things work out across the course of a full season. Big man Zach Edey is a dominant defensive force—and trust us when we say he’s no slouch on the offensive end, either! Good luck scoring against the Boilermakers, who entered the tournament ranked 21st in the nation in points allowed per game. 

Florida Atlantic

Odds:

Of all the sleeper teams vying for a national championship, we love Florida Atlantic’s chances of winning March Madness. The Owls rode a midseason 20-game winning streak en route to a 31-3 finish and the team’s first Conference USA championship. A deep bench and a strong defensive unit favor the Owls, who are playing in March Madness for the first time since 2002.  

Which 12 seed could upset a 5 seed?

As of March 2023, there have been 52 upsets by 12-seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. New Mexico State and Iowa pulled off the not-so-rare feat in 2022, respectively defeating UConn and Richmond. The 12 seed has won at least one round first game in 31 of the last 36 NCAA tournaments, with the most recent exception coming in 2018.

Of the four 12 vs. 5 matchups, we personally like the Drake Bulldogs to upset the Miami Hurricanes. Drake enters the tournament having won 14 of their last 15 games. Meanwhile, Miami could be without forward Norchad Ormier, who suffered an ankle injury in the ACC Tournament. You heard the upset talk here first!

What seed is most likely to win March Madness?

History unsurprisingly favors the NCAA Tournament’s top seeds. In fact, 31 of the last 33 March Madness champions were a top-3 seed. The exceptions? No. 7 Connecticut in 2014 (a run that caught LeBron James’ attention) and No. 4 Arizona in 1997. A No. 1 seed has won March Madness every year since No. 2 Villanova’s title run in 2016.

Who has the most accurate March Madness predictions?

Although we’re certainly confident in our predictions, we have nothing on Heat Check CBB’s Lukas Harkins, who remains among the most accurate March Madness bracketologists. Harkins’ March Madness projections consistently rank among the best and his knowledge shines each March. Listen to the man!

Has a No. 16 seed ever beaten a No. 1 seed?

Before the spring of 2018, the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, was perhaps best known as a lacrosse school. Everything changed on March 16, 2018, when the Retrievers upset the No. 1-seeded Virginia Cavaliers in the South regional bracket. Despite entering play as the NCAA Tournament’s top overall seed, the 31-2 Cavaliers were outscored 53-33 over the final 20 minutes of a 74-54 loss at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. That remains the only 16-1 upset since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

Who is the biggest underdog in March Madness history?

The biggest underdog in March Madness history is a subjective question. As of March 2023, only six teams have reached the Final Four as a double-digit seed; five were 11-seeds, with No. 10 Syracuse serving as the exception in 2016. 

Did you know that three championship teams, including Carmelo Anthony’s 2003 Syracuse Orange, won the modern NCAA Tournament after being unranked in the preseason AP Top 25? The club’s other members include the 1985 Villanova Wildcats and the 2006 Florida Gators. Let’s see if the FAU Owls, Iona Gaels, or Purdue Boilermakers can pull off a similar run this spring.

We consider Texas Southern the 2023 NCAA Tournament’s biggest underdog. The Tigers are the rare team to reach March Madness with a losing record, having earned the SWAC’s automatic bid despite their underwhelming 14-20 record. Good luck against Fairleigh Dickinson in the First Four!

Where will March Madness 2023 be held?

The University of Dayton will host the First Four, with eight arenas holding games in the first and second rounds. Another four venues, including Madison Square Garden, will host the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight. NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, will host the Final Four and national championship.

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